What are event contracts?

An event contract turns a yes or no question into something you can trade. It names the event, the source that decides it and a deadline. If the event happens as defined, Yes holders get a fixed payout, usually $1. If not, No holders get it. Every price in between is the market's guess at the odds.

In the US the CFTC oversees event contracts listed on designated contract markets such as Kalshi. For years it resisted election contracts as against the public interest, and in 2023 it rejected Kalshi's contracts on control of Congress. A federal court overturned that in September 2024. The live fight now is over sports, and the other side is state gaming regulators.

The wording decides everything. A contract on whether a company announces a product by a certain date can hinge on what counts as an announcement, or on which time zone the deadline uses.

Take a contract asking whether monthly inflation comes in above 3.0 percent, and say it prints exactly 3.0. If the rule says above, that is No. If it says at least, it is Yes. Same number, opposite payout.

Also called: binary contracts, event futures, binary options.

Each row in the Prediction markets widget is one event contract from Kalshi or Polymarket. It shows the leading outcome, up to two runners-up, 24h volume, liquidity where the venue reports it, and how long until the market ends. For the rule text, follow the row's link to the venue.

• Prediction markets

• Prediction markets
• Kalshi
• Polymarket
• Implied probability