What is Kalshi?

Kalshi opened for trading in 2021 and bills itself as the first CFTC-regulated exchange built only for event contracts. It also lists daily markets on things like weather and crypto prices.

Kalshi sued its own regulator and won. A federal judge sided with it against the CFTC over election contracts in September 2024, and US election markets went live that fall. Sports contracts followed in early 2025 and now drive much of its volume. They also started a war with the states. In 2026 two federal appeals courts split on it: the Third Circuit shielded Kalshi from New Jersey's gambling law in April, and the Ninth Circuit sided with Nevada in August. That split makes Supreme Court review more likely.

Next to Polymarket it is a traditional exchange. It checks identities and settles in dollars, and Kalshi itself decides outcomes under its rulebook rather than a token vote.

Picture Kalshi with a rate cut at 64 cents while a similar Polymarket market sits at 70. Before calling that free money, compare the resolution rules and the fees. Most gaps like this come down to wording or to who trades where. A real mispricing is rarer.

Kalshi rows in the Prediction markets widget show the midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask. If either side of the book is empty, the last trade stands in. Volume is counted in contracts, not dollars, and Kalshi rows carry no 24h move. Kalshi's feed has no category field, so the widget guesses from the ticker, and a ticker it does not recognize stays under No sports rather than vanishing.

• Prediction markets

• Official documentationdocs.kalshi.com
• Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org

• Prediction markets
• Polymarket
• Event contracts
• Implied probability