CashboardGlossary · Prediction Markets
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is the largest crypto prediction market, where Yes or No shares on real events trade and the winning side redeems for $1.
How does Polymarket work?
Polymarket launched in 2020 and runs its international platform on Polygon. Markets cover politics, economics, sports, crypto and culture. Shares trade on an order book between 0 and $1, so you can sell early if the price moves your way instead of waiting for resolution.
Most markets resolve through UMA's optimistic oracle. Short crypto up-or-down markets are the exception and settle automatically on Chainlink price data. For the rest, an approved proposer puts forward an outcome, and it stands unless someone disputes it inside a short challenge window, usually two hours. A first dispute just restarts the proposal. A second one goes to a vote of UMA token holders, and the biggest holders carry a lot of that vote. So read the written rules before you look at the price. Edge cases decide Yes or No, and a few disputed markets have settled in ways their traders did not see coming.
US access has a history. A 2022 settlement with the CFTC shut Americans out of the main platform. In July 2025 Polymarket bought QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million, and it now serves US users through that separate regulated arm. Outside the US, availability still depends on the country.
Hypothetical example: Yes on ETH closing the month above a set price trades at 35 cents. 1,000 Yes shares cost $350 and pay $1,000 if ETH gets there. If it does not, the $350 is gone.
Where does Polymarket show up in Cashboard?
Polymarket rows in the Prediction markets widget come from its busiest events by 24h volume, one market per event, so a single election cannot fill the whole list. Volume is in dollars, and a row shows the 24h move in percentage points when Polymarket reports one and it is at least half a point. Resolution rules are not in the widget. The row's link opens the market on Polymarket, rules included.
Frequently asked questions
How does Polymarket resolve markets?
Most go through UMA's optimistic oracle. A proposed outcome stands unless someone disputes it inside the challenge window, usually two hours. Two disputes send it to a UMA token holder vote, and a fully disputed market can take four to six days to settle. Short crypto price markets settle on Chainlink data instead.
Where can you read more about Polymarket?
Related terms
Last reviewed . Market data in Cashboard comes from the providers named on each widget and may be delayed. Nothing here is financial advice.